# Why a low-carbon transition approach?

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## Context: 2024 was the[hottest year](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques) ever recorded. Before that, the period 2015–2022 accounted for the 8 hottest years ever recorded. The threshold of average warming of more than 2° was symbolically crossed [in a single day in 2023](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques) (for an estimated current average warming of +1.4°C). Year after year, record after record, climate change and its consequences are becoming ever more intense: unprecedented forest fires in Canada, record heatwaves in Brazil with perceived temperatures exceeding 55°C, flooding in Bangladesh affecting several million people. These consequences are not occurring only abroad, but are becoming more severe year after year in France. The CGDD, [in a 2020 publication](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques)**, highlighted that 6 out of 10 French people are affected by climate risk** and that the annual frequency of so-called “very serious” accidents (at least 10 deaths and/or more than €30 million in damage) has almost quadrupled in the last two decades compared with the previous four. The [6th Assessment Report (AR6)](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques) from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), approved by the 195 member states of the UN, is the **reference** for the state of scientific knowledge on the climate. It [confirms](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques) the conclusions of previous reports: human influence on the climate is unequivocal. The hottest years we have experienced so far will be among the coolest within a generation. Past [greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/glossary#gaz-a-effet-de-serre-ges) have caused profound changes in all components of the climate system. Continued emissions worsen the impacts of climate change. Many changes are irreversible on centennial to millennial timescales. The choices and actions implemented during the current decade will therefore have repercussions today and for thousands of years. In the absence of rapid, effective and fair mitigation and adaptation measures, climate change increasingly threatens ecosystems, biodiversity, livelihoods, health and well-being of current and future generations. Technical, political and societal solutions already exist in all sectors and are well identified. ## Framework objectives ### At international level In order to respond to this challenge, the[Paris Agreement](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques), drafted during the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21 – UNFCCC), proposes to keep “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and to pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”. ### At European level The European Green Deal aims for carbon neutrality across Europe by 2050. To make this objective legally binding, the [European Climate Law](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques) sets a target of a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least -55% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. ### At French level Finally, these framework objectives are applied in France through the National Low-Carbon Strategy ([SNBC](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques)), which also aims for carbon neutrality in 2050 (which implies a sixfold reduction in greenhouse gas emissions on French territory compared with 1990). It also sets objectives by period (carbon budgets), by economic sector, as well as targets for reducing the carbon footprint of the French population and increasing territorial carbon sinks. It is updated periodically according to the degree of achievement of the first carbon budgets. ## Issues > *“We have already reached 1.2 degrees and this trend is intensifying,” says the UN Secretary-General in his statement. “Warming has accelerated over recent decades. Every fraction of a degree matters. Greenhouse gas concentrations are reaching record levels. Extreme weather and climate disasters are becoming more frequent and more intense.”* > > António Guterres, 2021, Secretary-General of the United Nations. **Almost 10 years after the Paris Agreements, international action is still awaited**. Global GHG emissions have still not begun to decline (and are even continuing to rise, albeit at a less rapid pace), whereas limiting warming to +2° would require a reduction in global GHG emissions of [64% by 2050 and 84% to limit warming to +1.5°](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques). Current public policies at global level are therefore insufficient and would, without strengthening, lead to global warming [estimated at +3.2° by 2100](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques). In other words, a catastrophic scenario. France's emission reduction targets, although ambitious in their projections (i.e. the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050 in inventory approach), have nevertheless taken time to produce their first effects. More recently, however, French gross emissions have indeed declined. Thus, in 2023, a decrease of 4.8% compared with 2022 was observed, with a reduction in GHG emissions in all major sectors **thereby making it possible to meet, on average, the SNBC2 targets for the 2019–2023 period (2nd carbon budget)**, excluding carbon sinks. These recent emission reductions are therefore encouraging (France's carbon footprint has also been gradually decreasing since the 2010s) but as the [High Council on Climate](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/bibliography#evolutions-climatiques) indicates, the decline in gross emissions must still prove to be structural. ✅ The urgency of action to reduce our GHG emissions is therefore more relevant than ever **and the need for** [**low-carbon transition approaches**](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/introduction-to-the-low-carbon-transition/what-is-a-low-carbon-transition-approach) (that is, towards a less emissions-intensive societal model) is now vital. {% hint style="info" %} **To go further:** These introductory elements are an essential prerequisite in a Bilan Carbone® approach. They must be known, understood and mastered by the stakeholders involved and will be addressed in the [Stakeholder engagement](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/3-stakeholder-engagement)stage. They are explained in more detail in the [awareness and outreach resources](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/appendices/appendix-9-resources-for-stakeholder-engagement) on the issues. {% endhint %} *** *Do you have a question about understanding?* [*Consult the FAQ*](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/appendices/faq)*. The method is a living one and therefore likely to evolve (clarifications, additions): find the* [*change log here*](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/foreword/history-and-tracking-of-changes)*.*