5.3 - Defining the transition trajectory

How to construct a low-carbon transition trajectory?

Source: Freepik

The low-carbon transition pathway describes how and by what means the organisation will evolve to reach its GHG emissions reduction objective (whether short-, medium- or long-term). It is the trend of the organisation's carbon intensity.

It represents a series ofsteps linking the current state of the organisation (calculated emissions profile) to its transition objectives and to the organisation's vision of itself in a low-carbon world.

These steps are calculated and defined by quantifying the reduction potentials of the actions. They help justify the achievement of intermediate milestones of the objectives that the organisation sets for itself, in the short or long term depending on its maturity.

Thus, within the framework of the Bilan Carbone®, the pathway is considered to be defined in an upward approach (so-called bottom-up): the reduction potentials of the actions make it possible to define the pathway that justifies the credibility of achieving the objective.

Requirements relating to the transition pathway

Depending on the organisation's level of maturity, expectations differ:

Initial Level: criterion R1

The quantification of the overall reduction volume of the transition plan makes it possible to build a pathway using an upward approach (so-called bottom-up).

The pathway is defined over 3-4 years, i.e. the period of renewal of the assessment.

It justifies the achievement of a short-term objective (horizon of the next assessment) consistent with the overall objective.

Standard Level: criterion R2

The quantification of the reduction potential of the actions makes it possible to build a pathway using an upward approach (so-called bottom-up).

The pathway is defined over 10 years.

It links the GHG profile and justifies the achievement of short-term objectives (horizon of the next assessment) and medium-term objectives (2030 horizon or over about ten years) consistent with theoverall objective. This means that the total estimated reduction allows at a minimum to follow the trend set by the objectives.

Advanced Level: criterion R3

The organisation equips itself or consolidates a pathway using an upward approach (so-called bottom-up) over 30 years.

The pathway incorporates intermediate reduction steps, defined thanks to the quantification of the reduction potential of the actions that the organisation undertakes. Strategic actions are included, with a longer-term reduction.

Consolidation : For this Advanced Level, the organisation may rely on its climate strategy resulting from pre-existing or complementary work. If such an approach has been followed upstream, the Bilan Carbone® is used here to steer this pathway (and for any evaluation or reorientation).

🔎 It is therefore recommended to rely on methods such as ACT Step by Step or equivalent.

This pathway justifies the achievement of short-term objectives (annual horizon), medium-term objectives (2030 horizon or over about ten years) and long-term objectives (2050 horizon) consistent with theoverall objective. This means that for an Advanced Level the total estimated reduction allows to do better than the trend set by the objectives.

Figure 5.3: Visual example of a low-carbon transition pathway.

🔎 To express the Bilan Carbone® with a so-called “analytical” reading, consistent with analytical carbon accounting, the organisation's overall pathway can be supported by pathways by analytical dimensions. The objectives and reduction potentials will not necessarily be the same depending on activities, teams or any other chosen analytical dimensions. Each manager commits to their own pathway and to their own emissions. Consolidating the pathways and actions envisaged by each manager helps to feed or verify the consistency of the overall pathway.

In conclusion and as a reminder, constructing a pathway can be a specific complementary exercise. Within the framework of an Initial and Standard Level Bilan Carbone®, the requirements are achievable because it is a translation of the quantified reduction (upward approach or bottom-up) through the action plan. In contrast, for the Advanced Level, it will be necessary to carry out (or have carried out) a genuine climate strategy, such as specified in the introduction.

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