# Appendix 12 - Resource for risk and opportunity analysis

## List of potential physical and transition risks

This list aims to provide a number of examples without guaranteeing exhaustiveness regarding potential existing risks and opportunities. Certain types of risks (geopolitical, wars, health risks, for example) may be added if a correlation with climate change is identified. Risks whose causes and consequences are not related to climate change are not part of these examples.

These risks do not concern all organisations. They are described as “non-specific” to the organisation’s activities. Additional analysis work is carried out to target risks specific to the organisation’s activities.

> <mark style="background-color:blue;">⏳\[</mark>[<mark style="background-color:blue;">WIP</mark>](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/foreword#structures-des-informations-specifiques)<mark style="background-color:blue;">] This resource will be produced and made available soon.</mark>

## Risk analysis matrix

For each risk, the objective of this resource is to be able to rank several indicators (here probability or severity as an example).

<table><thead><tr><th>Risks</th><th>Probability<select><option value="9xNfpVBbaAVW" label="Unlikely" color="blue"></option><option value="nPMvhB8VWlQ2" label="Possible" color="blue"></option><option value="zaBMBxpyEaoS" label="Probable" color="blue"></option><option value="OWHLuFakcIPg" label="Almost certain" color="blue"></option></select></th><th>Severity<select><option value="JhGTLVLf8QGC" label="Minor" color="blue"></option><option value="H7EPH47A3LUH" label="Limited" color="blue"></option><option value="sAKoasTnpVNU" label="Major" color="blue"></option><option value="1TB6Jle2DM4S" label="Severe" color="blue"></option></select></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Risk No. 1</td><td><span data-option="9xNfpVBbaAVW">Unlikely</span></td><td><span data-option="sAKoasTnpVNU">Major</span></td></tr><tr><td>Risk No. 2</td><td><span data-option="nPMvhB8VWlQ2">Possible</span></td><td><span data-option="JhGTLVLf8QGC">Minor</span></td></tr><tr><td>Risk No. 3</td><td><span data-option="zaBMBxpyEaoS">Probable</span></td><td><span data-option="1TB6Jle2DM4S">Severe</span></td></tr><tr><td>Risk No. 4</td><td><span data-option="OWHLuFakcIPg">Almost certain</span></td><td><span data-option="H7EPH47A3LUH">Limited</span></td></tr></tbody></table>

For each ranked risk, the conclusions of the proposed matrix make it possible to prioritise the organisation’s action.

|                                 | Minor and Limited   | Major and Severe |
| ------------------------------- | ------------------- | ---------------- |
| **Unlikely and Possible**       | Watch & Opportunity | Anticipate       |
| **Probable and Almost certain** | Act                 | Urgency          |

> <mark style="background-color:blue;">⏳\[</mark>[<mark style="background-color:blue;">WIP</mark>](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/foreword#structures-des-informations-specifiques)<mark style="background-color:blue;">] This resource will be produced and made available soon.</mark>

## Economic vulnerabilities simulator

This economic analysis utility allows simulations to be carried out, based on the [emission profile](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/4-accounting/4.5-emission-profile) of the organisation.

Examples of possible simulations:&#x20;

* assess all additional costs that would follow an increase in hydrocarbon prices, assuming that all suppliers, suppliers’ suppliers, etc. pass on the increase in energy prices they experience into their prices. In such a case, the simulation naturally concerns only the CO2 resulting from the use of hydrocarbons.&#x20;
* assess the additional costs that would result from the introduction of a carbon tax or a penalty on greenhouse gas emissions.

It is therefore in no way a predictive tool. The assumptions chosen must always be specified if not justified.

{% hint style="info" %}
This utility currently exists in the [tools of ABC](https://www.bilancarbone-methode.com/methode-bilan-carbone-r-en/training-and-application-tools-for-the-method/bilan-carbone-r-tools-spreadsheets-and-software) (Excel and BC+), available to members of the association.
{% endhint %}