Annex 12 - Resource for the analysis of risks and opportunities

List of potential physical and transition risks

This list aims to provide a number of examples without guaranteeing exhaustiveness regarding potential existing risks and opportunities. Certain types of risks (geopolitical, wars, health risks, for example) may be added if a correlation with climate change is identified. Risks whose causes and consequences are not related to climate change are not part of these examples.

These risks do not concern all organisations. They are described as “non-specific” to the organisation’s activities. Additional analysis work is carried out to target risks specific to the organisation’s activities.

⏳[WIP] This resource will be produced and made available soon.

Risk analysis matrix

For each risk, the objective of this resource is to be able to rank several indicators (here probability or severity as an example).

Risks	Probability	Severity
Risk No. 1	Unlikely	Major
Risk No. 2	Possible	Minor
Risk No. 3	Probable	Severe
Risk No. 4	Almost certain	Limited

For each ranked risk, the conclusions of the proposed matrix make it possible to prioritise the organisation’s action.

	Minor and Limited	Major and Severe
Unlikely and Possible	Watch & Opportunity	Anticipate
Probable and Almost certain	Act	Urgency

⏳[WIP] This resource will be produced and made available soon.

Economic vulnerabilities simulator

This economic analysis utility allows simulations to be carried out, based on the emission profile of the organisation.

Examples of possible simulations:

• assess all additional costs that would follow an increase in hydrocarbon prices, assuming that all suppliers, suppliers’ suppliers, etc. pass on the increase in energy prices they experience into their prices. In such a case, the simulation naturally concerns only the CO2 resulting from the use of hydrocarbons.

• assess the additional costs that would result from the introduction of a carbon tax or a penalty on greenhouse gas emissions.

It is therefore in no way a predictive tool. The assumptions chosen must always be specified if not justified.

This utility currently exists in the tools of ABC (Excel and BC+), available to members of the association.