Annex 12 - Resources for risk and opportunity analysis

List of Potential Physical and Transition Risks

This list aims to give a number of examples without guaranteeing exhaustiveness on potential existing risks and opportunities. Certain types of risks (geopolitical, wars, health risks, for example) may be added if a correlation with climate change is identified. Risks whose causes and consequences are not linked to climate change do not form part of these examples.

These risks do not concern all organisations. They are described as "non-specific" to the organisation's activities. Additional analysis work is carried out to target the specific risks to the organisation's activities.

⏳[WIP] This resource will be produced and made available shortly.

Risk Analysis Matrix

For each risk, the objective of this resource is to be able to prioritise several indicators (here probability or severity as an example).

Risks	Probability	Severity
Risk no. 1	Unlikely	Major
Risk no. 2	Possible	Minor
Risk no. 3	Probable	Dramatic
Risk no. 4	Near-certain	Limited

For each prioritised risk, the conclusions of the proposed matrix make it possible to prioritise the organisation's action.

	Minor and Limited	Major and Dramatic
Unlikely and Possible	Monitor & Opportunity	Anticipate
Probable and Near-Certain	Act	Urgent

⏳[WIP] This resource will be produced and made available shortly.

Economic Vulnerability Simulator

This economic analysis utility makes it possible to carry out simulations, based on the organisation's emission profile.

Examples of possible simulations:

• Assess all the additional costs that would follow a rise in hydrocarbon prices, on the assumption that all suppliers, suppliers' suppliers, etc. pass on to their prices the resulting rise in energy prices for them. In such a case, the simulation only concerns CO2 from the use of hydrocarbons.

• Assess the additional costs that would result from the implementation of a carbon tax or a penalty on greenhouse gas emissions.

This is therefore in no way a predictive tool. The chosen assumptions must always be made explicit if they cannot be justified.

This utility currently exists in the ABC's tools (Excel and BC+), available for the association's members.